Once EVM metrics are in place, the next step is forecasting future performance and estimating final project outcomes.
1. Key Forecasting Metrics
Example:
If BAC = ₹100 Cr and CPI = 0.9
EAC = ₹100 Cr + ₹0.9 Cr = ₹111.1 Cr
This results in a projected overrun of 11.1%.
2. Time–Cost S-Curves
S-curves graphically display cumulative planned cost, actual cost, and earned value over time.
They allow quick visual comparison of progress trends and performance gaps.
Curve Zones:
- Early stage: Low cost, low progress.
- Middle stage: Steep curve (active execution).
- Final stage: Flattening curve (close-out).
3. Forecasting Best Practices
- Update EVM weekly or biweekly.
- Validate progress quantities through site reports.
- Re-baseline only for approved changes.
- Analyze trends over time, not just snapshots.
“Forecasting is not prediction—it’s prevention.”